Pemetaan Kerentanan dan Peramalan Kekeringan Meteorologis di DAS Blega Menggunakan Indeks China-Z Multiskala dan Model SARIMA

Authors

  • Nur Azizah Affandy Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Islam Lamongan
  • Prayoga, NA Program Studi Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, Universitas Islam Lamongan
  • Dhana, RR Program Studi Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, Universitas Islam Lamongan
  • Iranata, D Departemen Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Teknik Sipil, Perencanaan, dan Kebumian, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32492/nucleus.v5i1.5106

Keywords:

Meteorological drought, China-Z Index, drought vulnerability mapping, SARIMA, Blega Watershed

Abstract

Meteorological drought is one of the hydrometeorological phenomena that frequently occurs and has the potential to cause serious impacts on water availability, agricultural activities, and the sustainability of community livelihoods. This condition requires a deeper understanding of drought patterns as well as the capability to anticipate the likelihood of future drought events. This study aims to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of meteorological drought in the Blega Watershed using the China-Z Index (CZI) at multiple time scales, namely CZI-1, CZI-3, CZI-6, CZI-12, and CZI-24, while also mapping areas vulnerable to drought. In addition, this study develops drought forecasting using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to estimate future drought trends. The results indicate that the CZI is capable of capturing fluctuations in drought conditions from wet to dry categories across different time scales and identifying areas with varying levels of drought vulnerability within the Blega Watershed. Time series modeling shows that the SARIMA (0,0,0)(1,0,1)12 model provides the best predictive performance, with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) value of 0.599, indicating that the model is reasonably accurate in representing drought dynamics. These findings suggest that drought patterns in the study area are influenced by annual seasonal variations closely related to rainfall distribution. Therefore, this study not only provides a scientific overview of meteorological drought characteristics in the Blega Watershed but also offers valuable information for drought mitigation planning, water resource management, and more responsive policy-making toward climate variability.

Author Biographies

Prayoga, NA, Program Studi Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, Universitas Islam Lamongan

Berperan dalam pengumpulan dan verifikasi data curah hujan serta data pendukung lainnya yang digunakan dalam penelitian. Penulis 2 juga berkontribusi dalam proses analisis spasial dan pemetaan kerentanan kekeringan di DAS Blega, termasuk pengolahan data spasial dan visualisasi hasil dalam bentuk peta. Selain itu, turut membantu dalam penyusunan bagian metodologi dan hasil penelitian.

Dhana, RR, Program Studi Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Sains dan Teknologi, Universitas Islam Lamongan

Bertanggung jawab dalam pengembangan dan validasi model deret waktu, khususnya dalam proses identifikasi, estimasi, dan evaluasi model SARIMA. Penulis 3 juga melakukan analisis akurasi model (misalnya menggunakan MAE) serta interpretasi hasil peramalan. Selain itu, berkontribusi dalam penulisan bagian hasil dan pembahasan terkait aspek peramalan.

Iranata, D, Departemen Teknik Sipil, Fakultas Teknik Sipil, Perencanaan, dan Kebumian, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember

Berperan dalam kajian literatur, penguatan landasan teori, serta penyusunan bagian tinjauan pustaka dan abstrak. Penulis 4 juga melakukan proses penyuntingan (editing) dan penyesuaian naskah agar sesuai dengan kaidah penulisan ilmiah dan template jurnal tujuan. Selain itu, bertanggung jawab dalam pengecekan konsistensi sitasi, format referensi, dan bahasa akademik secara keseluruhan.

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Published

2026-05-08

How to Cite

Azizah Affandy, N. ., Prayoga, D. P., Dhana, R. R., & Iranata, D. (2026). Pemetaan Kerentanan dan Peramalan Kekeringan Meteorologis di DAS Blega Menggunakan Indeks China-Z Multiskala dan Model SARIMA. Nucleus Journal, 5(1), 78–94. https://doi.org/10.32492/nucleus.v5i1.5106

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Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026): May (In Progress)

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Articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Nur Azizah Affandy, Prayoga, NA, Dhana, RR, Iranata, D

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